折现现金流模型dcf-model

来源：年旅网

(in million)Sales% growthTotal costs% salesEBITDA% marginDepreciation & Amortization:% salesEBITTaxes (30%)Capex% salesIncrease/Decrease in NWCUnlevered Free Cash FlowWACCDiscount PeriodDiscount FactorPresent value of free cash flowTerminal ValueTerminal Year Free Cash FlowPerpetuity Growth RateTerminal Year EBITDATerminal Value

Implied Exit MultipleDiscount PeriodDiscount Factor Present Value of Terminal Value% of Enterprise Value (in million)Net Working CapitalAccount receivablesInventoryPrepaid expenses and otherTotal Current Assets% salesAccount payableAccrued LiabilitiesOther Current LiabilitiesTotal Current Liabilities% salesNet Working Capital% salesDCF model - www.business-valuation.netActualCAGR2006200720082009(06 - 09)2,9553,5684,1024,66316%20.7%15.0%13.7%-2,51185.0%44415.0%-491.6%396-119-3,04785.4%52114.6%-631.8%459-138-792.2%-14515911.4%-3,52485.9%57814.1%-751.8%503-151-411.0%-77309-4,03186.5%63113.5%-841.8%8-1-1693.6%-1828117%20105,0368.0%-4,31685.7%72014.3%-911.8%629-1-1162.3%2417Forec20115,4388.0%-4,66185.7%77814.3%-981.8%680-204-1252.3%-3141712%11%0.50.953951.50.853555263.0%9806,4837.0x5.00.63,78768%Actual200720081417749827426380490622.5%22.1%Forec2011200610311066322.4%200913953941,06022.7%20101,12822.4%1,21822.4%-50917.2%1555%-50514.1%3008%-53012.9%3779%-66614.3%3948%-73514.6%3938%-79414.6%4248%Forecast period2012201320145,8746,3436,8518.0%8.0%8.0%-5,034-5,436-5,87185.7%85.7%85.7%84090798014.3%14.3%14.3%-106-114-1231.8%1.8%1.8%734793856-220-238-257-135-146-1582.3%2.3%2.3%-34-37-404514875262.53..50.760.690.62344334324Forecast period2012201320141,3161,4211,53522.4%22.4%22.4%-858-926-1,00014.6%14.6%14.6%4584955348%8%8%DCF model - www.businInputWacc CalculationTarget Capital Structure (1)Debt to Total Capitalization29.1%Equity to Total Capitalization70.9%Debt to Equity Ratio41.8%Cost of EquityRisk-free rate (2)4.0%Market risk Premium (3)7.1%Levered Beta (4)1.22Size Premium (5)1.7% Cost of Equity14.3%Cost of DebtCost of Debt6.0%Taxes30.0% After Tax Cost of Debt4.2%WACC11.4%(1) Obtained from Beta and Capital Structure tab(2) Interpolated Yield on 10-year Treasury bond(3) Obtained from Ibbotson SBBI Valuation Yearbook(4) Obtained from Beta and Capital Structure tab(5) Low-Cap Decile size premium based on marketcapitalization, per Ibbotsonbusiness-valuation.netDCF model - www.business-valuation.netOutputEnterprise valuePresent value of Free Cash Flow1,753Terminal Value6,483Discount Factor0.58Present Value of Terminal Value3,787% of Enterprise Value68%Enterprise value5,0Less: Total debt100Plus: Cash and Cash Equi.300Net Debt-200Implied Equity Value5,740Outstanding shares10,000Implied share price0.57Implied multiplesEnterprise Value5,0SALES 20105,036EBITDA 2010

720Implied EV/SALES1.1xImplied EV/EBITDA

7.7x

###5,09.4%CC10.4%A11.4%W12.4%13.4%###5,0%12.3% A13.3%DT14.3%IBE15.3%16.3%Sensitivity AnalysisPerpetuity growth %2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%6,4966,8617,2847,7785,7155,9856,2926,45,1025,3095,05,8014,6094,7714,9505,1494,2044,3334,47,631Annual sales growth %7.0%7.5%8.0%8.5%4,4024,4684,5344,6024,88,9615,0375,1155,3685,4535,05,6285,8515,9466,0436,1416,3346,4396,66,6net4.0%8,3657,0526,0975,3724,804

%9.0%4,6705,1935,7166,2406,763

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